POLICY BRIEFING
From military spending to climate finance: what Annex II countries could deliver for Africa
A new policy briefing by Tipping Point North South released ahead of COP31 in Turkey shows that rich developed countries are actively prioritising military spending over climate finance for the most climate vulnerable nations, many of which are in sub-Saharan Africa.
The “massive gap” in climate finance for African nations was addressed at a meeting of African Heads of State and Government on Climate Change in February this year. It expressed deep concern that less than 3% of global climate finance reaches sub-Saharan Africa annually, with much of this funding arrives as loans rather than grants, worsening the continent’s debt burden.
Annex II countries under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are subset of industrialized nations belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and are charged with a legal obligation to provide climate finance, reflecting their historic responsibility for climate change. But inside climate finance negotiations, it is Annex II countries which consistently plead poverty and drive down the climate finance ambition year after year, as evidenced at COP29 in Baku.
Yet in 2025 Annex II countries spent $1.5 trillion on the military (more than half of the global total $2.8 trillion). This was a 28% increase of $336 billion (at constant 2024 prices and exchange rates) on 2015, the year of the Paris Agreement and an average annual increase of $34 billion.
From military spending to climate finance: what Annex II countries could deliver for Africa argues that rapid year on year increases in the military spending of Annex II rich countries means there is money available to meet their historic climate obligations despite their claims to the contrary.
For example, redirecting just 5% of Annex II annual military spending—about US$76 billion a year—would create a substantial, predictable flow of public climate finance for Africa: enough to cover the estimated US$50 billion annual cost of electrifying households in 40 Sub-Saharan African countries by 2030, with US$26 billion left for other priorities, or to meet about 30% of Africa’s US$250 billion annual external climate-finance need.
The briefing says that the choice between allocating ever more hundreds of billions for fossil fuel-addicted war machines or public climate finance for climate vulnerable nations of sub-Saharan Africa is a question of political priority, not scarcity. As COP31 in Turkey approaches and the Africa COP32 in Addis Ababa scheduled for 2027, it argues that the time is fast coming when ever rising global military expenditure will be regarded as a yet one more significant source to tap if rich nations are to pay up and meet the urgent climate needs of a continent that has zero responsibility for the climate emergency yet facing the ever-growing consequences.
Notes
- The full briefing “From military spending to climate finance: what Annex II countries could deliver for Africa”. https://transformdefence.org/publication/deliver-for-africa
- You can find further TPNS research on climate and militarism at https://transformdefence.org/publication
- Less than 3% of global climate finance reaches sub-Saharan Africa annually https://au.int/en/pressreleases/20260221/african-leaders-call-urgent-overhaul-global-climate-finance-cahoscc-meeting
- UNFCCC ANNEX II COUNTRIES https://unfccc.int/cop3/fccc/climate/annex2.htm
- COP29 THE FINANCE COP – Held in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11 to 24, 2024, was widely known as the “Finance COP” because its central mission was setting a new global climate finance target to replace the old $100 billion-a-year goal. Baku failed spectacularly to deliver an ambitious new climate finance goal. Despite calls for a US$1.3 trillion annual goal by 2030, it settled on $300 billion annually for developing countries’ climate action by 2035. It still left climate vulnerable nations and regions without adequate resources to address the climate crisis.
- KEY RECOMMENDATION:
Redirection of annual military spending of Annex II countries to fund international public climate finance for African nations Since the annual military spending of Annex II countries is so large − just under half the value of the combined African economy at $3.6 trillion − diverting 10% or even 5% of this annual $1.5 trillion military spending to climate finance could achieve significant results for the African continent.
- ANNEX II MILITARY SPENDING AND CLIMATE FINANCE FOR AFRICA
- It is estimated that the top 20 military spenders combined dedicated US$40 trillion on their militaries and are therefore responsible for at least 10 billion tCO2e of military-related (but not conflict-related) emissions during the first quarter of the 21th century.
- In 2025 Annex II countries spent $1.5 trillion on the military – more than half of global military spending total.
- This $1.5 trillion in 2025 was a 28% increase of $336 billion (at constant 2024 prices and exchange rates) on 2015, the year of the Paris Agreement and was an average increase of $34 billion annually.
- This $34bn figure was more than enough to pay African countries their annual fair share of the 2015 Paris Agreement $100 billion a year climate pledge (Africa accounts for around 20% of either global land area or population)
- Overall, total international public and philanthropic climate finance to Africa in the decade 2011 to 2021 was $170bn (adaptation, mitigation, crosscutting activities. That is an average of $17bn p/a in total for 54 African states and more than 1.5 billion people.
- The annual $1.5tr military spending of Annex II countries is just under half of the total African economy at $3.6 trillion
- The combined GHG emissions of all 54 African nations at under 4% of the global total is less than the GHG emissions of the global military at 5.5%
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT
Deborah Burton Deborah@tippingpointnorthsouth.org +44 (0) 7779 203455
