Embargoed: 00:01am CET, 9 July
As NATO marks its 75th anniversary in Washington D.C. from 9-11 July 2024, new research shows that its record military expenditure of $1.34 trillion produces millions of tonnes of greenhouse emissions and diverts millions of dollars from climate finance.
The research briefing, Climate in the Crosshairs,(1) produced by the international research organization, Transnational Institute, Tipping Point North South (UK), Stop Wapenhandel (Netherlands) and is co-published by International Peace Bureau (IPB), Veterans for Peace (US), Centre Delàs d’Estudis per la Pau, IPPNW Germany. The briefing has calculations based on the latest military spending data by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
The report finds that:
- NATO’s overall military spending of $1.34 trillion in 2023 produces an estimated 233 million metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e).(2) This is more than Colombia or Qatar’s annual GHG emissions.
- NATO’s military spending increase of $126 billion in 2023 will lead to an estimated additional 31 million metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e). This is equivalent to the annual CO2 emissions of around 6.7 million average US cars.
- Meeting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) goal of 43% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 2019 levels would require an annual reduction of military emissions of at least 5%, yet, NATO increased its military emissions by around 15% in 2023 and looks set to continue increasing emissions this decade.
- NATO’s increase of military spending in 2023 would pay for the minimal climate financing demanded by developing countries in UN climate negotiations this year. NATO’s total military spending in 2023 would pay this financing 13 times over and start to provide the levels of climate finance needed to address the climate crisis.
The briefing is based on a longer report, Climate Crossfire, published in October 2023 that calculated the likely financial implications as well as increased greenhouse gas emissions that would result if all 31 NATO member states meet their commitment to increase military spending to a minimum of 2% of GDP. If all members of NATO meet the commitment of spending at least 2% of GDP on the military, by 2028 this would lead to a total estimated collective military carbon footprint of 2 billion tCO2e, greater than the annual GHG emissions of Russia. NATO would also spend an estimated additional $2.57 trillion, enough to pay for what the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) estimates as the climate adaptation costs for low- and middle-income countries for seven years.
Climate Crossfire is a companion piece to our earlier report Climate Collateral looking at how global military spending accelerates climate breakdown.
The only winners of the boost in military spending are the arms firms who are booming from the surge in expenditure. The briefing shows that backlogs of orders for ten of the leading global arms firms grew by an average of more than 13% between 2022 and 2023.
Co-authors of the report, Dr Ho-Chih Lin and Deborah Burton of Tipping Point North South said:
‘The climate crisis is made far worse by record NATO military spending which increases climate emissions and diverts valuable finance from climate investments in this crucial decade for action. NATO may consider itself a security alliance, but our research shows it is adding fuel to the climate fire, imperilling the safety of people and the planet’.
Contact: Deborah Burton | +44 7779 203455/ UK | deborah@tippingpointnorthsouth.org
Co-author of the report, Nick Buxton of Transnational Institute said:
‘In the 1990s, the end of the Cold War delivered a peace dividend, releasing resources to invest in social needs in the US, Europe and Eastern Europe. As the US and other countries worldwide face devastating heatwaves, we urgently need NATO to stop its war-mongering, and join an international push for a climate peace dividend – a cut in military expenditure globally that can allow the international community to invest in a safe future for all. There is no secure nation or alliance on an unsafe planet.’
Contact: Nick Buxton | +1 530 902 3772 /California | nick@tni.org | @nickbuxton
Mark Akkerman, a researcher at Stop Wapenhandel, Dutch Campaign Against the Arms Trade says: ‘As the planet reaches a climate tipping point, it is insane that we are investing in making arms dealers even richer, rather than protecting those whose lives are being devastated by climate breakdown.’
Contact: Mark Akkerman | +31 (0) 6 103 281 06/Netherlands | m.akkerman@stopwapenhandel.org | @CTWnl
Notes
- The full report can be found at https://transformdefence.org/publication/climate-in-the-crosshairs/. The latest military spending figures come from SIPRI (22 April 2024), Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2023 https://www.sipri.org/publications/2024/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2023 The estimation of emissions is based on a spend-emission conversion factor of 0.000534 tCO2e per US dollar. The full explanation for the calculation can be found in Appendix 1 of https://transformdefence.org/publication/climate-crossfire-how-natos-2-military-spending-targets-contribute-to-climate-breakdown/
- $100 billion is considered the floor – the bare minimum required climate financing for the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) – currently being negotiated at the UNFCCC. It was the former goal that developed countries committed to deliver by 2020 at UNFCCC’s 2015 Paris summit, and which they failed to do in real terms. In reality, trillions of dollars are needed to deal with climate costs.
- A coalition of US organizations are holding events 6-7 July in Washington D.C. to advocate for a ‘world beyond NATO, where we invest to eliminate poverty, hunger, illness and homelessness; where we live in harmony with our environment; and where we resolve conflict diplomatically through the only global organization that represents the whole world – the United Nations.’ https://nonatoyespeace.org/
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