BONN SB64 CLIMATE CONFERENCE

SIDE EVENT:  Peace and Climate Justice: Emissions, Finance and Equity

Deborah Burton:  Military Spending vs Climate Finance 

The arms race, opportunity costs of militarisation, and implications for climate finance and global equity, including Double Dividend report

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In 2025 scientists from the Planetary Boundaries Science Lab at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research conducted a new assessment of the nine planetary boundaries that make up Earth’s life support systems:

Their assessment found that SEVEN out of NINE “planetary boundaries” have been transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity. Three-quarters of the Earth’s support systems are not in the safe zone.

Our planet is on life support.

Which means humanity is on life support.

But the Emergency Room isn’t the priority – no matter that it is FULL of brilliant committed empathetic human beings from every country on earth – scientists, activists, innovators – who stand with their sisters and brothers; who know where the injustice of this climate emergency lies.

Because as the planet boils, it is beyond belief that those guilty parties historically responsible for this climate catastrophe are pumping trillions annually into their fossil fuel addicted war machines and arms companies.

As we cross 7 of the 9 planetary boundaries, nations are CHOOSING to commit wars of aggression, perpetrating genocide, committing ecocide in their wake and traumatising entire populations for generations to come.

Be in no doubt. War and the war economy is the priority.  And as the old saying goes – there is always money for war. There is always money to be MADE from war. Arms company profits are BOOMING.

And we are now witnessing the unforgiveable – cuts to international aid and climate finance in favour of defence budgets.  As the UK Foreign Secretary said – in defence of the UK taking money from aid to bolster defence – “allies such as Germany, France and Sweden have made similar choices”.

A FEW NUMBERS

Global military spending has risen by almost a $1trillion in the past decade.

In 2025 it was just shy of $3tr.

85% of this $3tr figure accrues to the top 20 spenders

The USA accounted for 33% the global total

Russia and Germany have both doubled their spending on a decade ago… China does not want to be left behind and has increased its spending  – it is now one-third that of the U.S.A (ie 12% of world spending).

If this trend continues, between 2026 and 2030, we can expect to see at least $15 trillion spent on the global military, around 55% will be spent by Annex II rich developed countries on their own militaries.

Meantime NATO’s 32 members are aiming for 3.5% of GDP to be spent on their militaries, rising to 5% by 2035.

NATO’s new intended 3.5% GDP spending goal will lead to $2.6 trillion increase above current expenditure by 2030.

This figure could cover nearly three years worth of climate finance needs of developing countries at $1 trillion a year

or pay outright for the world’s global electricity grid to be made Net Zero compatible by 2030.

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 It is here in these spaces where the ‘shopping list’ of the issues that go to the heart of human survival – gets ever longer and ever more urgent.

The SDGS – face US$4 trillion dollar shortfall in funding.

There is a minimum US$2 trillion funding gap for climate and energy transition.

And Just Transition also needs to be underwritten – economic diversification, social protection, re-skilling – leaving no one behind.

SO can we afford to pay for those shopping lists?

Yes we surely can.

We need to secure trillions per annum and it is entirely possible.

Debt cancellation, tax justice, and an end to fossil fuel subsidies.

And military expenditure is now – finally – joining that list.

We must reverse the direction of travel on military expenditure and I believe the tanker can be turned on this issue.

I want to draw attention to a report launched at Santa Marta.

The Double Divide: How Reducing Military Spending Can Finance a Just Transition by the Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom (WILPF) and Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative examines the deep structural links between militarism, fossil fuel dependence and the climate crisis.

It makes the case that reducing military expenditure is one of the most significant – and most politically avoided – levers available to finance a just global transition away from fossil fuels.

As it says – this is a crisis of priorities, not resources.

We now need to move forward on establishing the routes by which we make the case for redirection.

As Ameira Sawas, Head of Research and Policy, Fossil Fuel Treaty said for the launch of the report – “A growing, intersectional civil society movement is connecting the dots between militarism, genocide, ecocide and climate injustice. Now, more than ever, the world needs funding for a just transition and for climate justice – not for militarism and expanding violence and injustice. This must involve a concrete plan to reallocate military spending towards the just transition..’

Ameira is right.

We have come a long way since Glasgow and Sharm El Sheikh COPs where the issue of military emissions first broke through not least because the entire world had been and is still watching daily and in real time the human and environmental toll of Perpetual war and booming arms industry profits.

As Martin Luther King said – the arc of history is long but it bends towards justice. It does and it will – but this time it is a race against the clock that we must win.